Back by popular demand!

Actually, just Stryker and Indy as far as I know, but if you guys are dedicated (or bored) enough to still check back here every now and then after six months, I should be able to get my act together and post something.

In fact, I really do want to get into the habit of writing something regularly, if only because it will help immensely when it comes time to write my thesis, so thanks for pestering me about it and making me feel like I should get started.

My plans for this summer are far less exotic than last year. I'm going to stay in Finland, enjoy the truly amazing summer here, and finally knuckle down and learn Finnish. In August I will have been here for six years, and it's a disgrace that my Finnish is as bad as it is.

I haven't been following U.S. politics much lately, although I'm glad that the U.S. public finally seems to have figured out what the rest of the world has known for a while about the Bush administration. I guess there's hope for democracy yet. It's unfortunate that so many innocent people had to die in the meantime.

A couple of years ago I had predicted that the U.S. economy would go into recession in 2006, and that obviously didn't happen, so I should take the advice of more experienced economists and just give up on predicting that sort of thing. On the other hand, I've confirmed what wiser people told me before: it's not hard to predict what will happen, but almost impossible to predict when.

The current slowdown in the U.S. was triggered by the collapse of the housing market, and looks like it will be exasperated by the high amount of consumer debt. It's unfolding exactly as I (and almost everybody else) thought it would, but much later than I predicted.

The problem with the U.S. right now is that the Fed has no room to maneuver. Loose monetary policy will keep savings low, hurt the dollar, and cause inflation. Tight monetary policy will not only hurt growth, but also impact debt-burdened consumers more than in previous economic cycles.

The end of this economic cycle will be an interesting test for Ben Bernanke.